Dealing with Russia in the Nordic region: How can Norway and Germany help to establish a balance between deterrence and dialogue?

The German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) and the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies (IFS) analyze in a joint research project the German and Norwegian political positions and strategies for managing relations with Russia in the area of security and defense. The project examines how the two countries can contribute to achieve a better balance between deterrence and dialogue in the relationship between Western countries and Russia.

Research Questions and Rationale

• How do Germany and Norway – two allies with a particular relationship with Russia – assess the changed (and evolving) security situation in the Nordic-Baltic region?
• How can Germany and Norway contribute to establishing a better balance between deterrence and defense, on the one hand, and dialogue, on the other, in the relationship between Western countries and Russia?
• How can Germany and Norway contribute to enhancing regional defense cooperation with Sweden and Finland without unnecessarily reinforcing Russian anxieties about a possible NATO accession of Stockholm and Helsinki?
• How can Germany and Norway help ensure that the Arctic remains a low-tension region during a time of increased geopolitical rivalry, particularly in light of Russia’s ambitions to extend its military presence in the region?

The two research institutes analyze and compare the two countries´ positions and strategies for managing relations with Russia in the Nordic-Baltic region and elaborate on possible joint courses of action. Besides contributing to German-Norwegian research cooperation, the project seeks to enhance the strategic dialogue between the two countries and strengthen their strategic capability.

Context

Since 2014, NATO-Russian relations have become increasingly strained. Both Germany and Norway have condemned Russia’s aggressive behavior towards its neighbors. At the same time, both countries have an interest in contributing to a balance between deterrence and dialogue in that relationship.

Germany and Norway are well positioned to be at the forefront in shaping European and Western relations with Russia. Both countries have a history of close relations with Russia. Their Russia policies are shaped by these historical experiences, but also geostrategic and economic interests. Neighboring Russia at NATO’s northern flank, Norway plays a significant role in NATO’s presence in the Nordic-Baltic region. The people-to-people cooperation and joint Russian-Norwegian responsibility for maritime areas in the High North are examples of ongoing cooperation even in times of increased tensions.

German commitment to the security of the Nordic-Baltic region is illustrated by contributions to reassurance of the Baltic states, participation in military exercises in the region (including the 2018 Trident Juncture in Norway and the Defender Europe 20 in 2020), and chairmanship of the Northern Group in 2019. Germany is also a framework nation in capability development for smaller NATO and EU partners. In addition, German-Russian relations constitute an important component of Western relations with Russia.

The Project is funded by the German and Norwegian ministries of defense.