Maritime Security 2030: A Strategic Overview

The aim of this report is to provide a perspective on the global development of the maritime domain in general, and maritime security in particular over the next 20 years. As a maritime nation, Norway’s national interests are closely tied to this development, as is the future of the Norwegian Navy.

Naval tasks can be divided into three roles: the constabulary, the diplomatic and the military. After the Cold War, the two former have increased in relative importance, although the military role remains the key role for navies. A whole range of factors are likely to influence how the three roles, how maritime security, will evolve in the next two decades. The development of international relations in general, the pattern and volume of international trade, and the relative abundance and scarcity of strategic resources are key factors in this context. Trade at sea will most likely continue to increase, but the strategic resources shipped over the seas and those found in or under the oceans may get scarcer, thus potentially increasing the risk of conflict in an increasingly multipolar world.

These developments can result in both symmetric and asymmetric challenges, with regional and local wars being the most probable of the former category, and terror, piracy and smuggling of the latter. Towards 2030, this report expects increased attention to asymmetric threats; however, developments in international relations, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, have already again increased attention to symmetric threats. The emerging seapowers Russia, China and India all have extensive armament and modernisation programmes, and the U.S. is determined to remain the most powerful seapower. Most of the major naval armaments programmes thus primarily take place in the Asia-Pacific region. This has facilitated a shift of U.S. forces from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

These developments may cause increasing tensions between major powers, but they can also lead to cooperation in protecting sea lines of communication (SLOC). Current trends suggest the latter of the two alternatives.

The development of international maritime security is important for Norway for many reasons, including notably the strong maritime component of the Norwegian economy. Symmetric challenges near Norway are less likely than in the Asia-Pacific; however, uncertainty concerning political developments in Russia remains. From this perspective, the prospect for increased maritime activity in the Arctic is a potential source of dispute. The asymmetric challenges to Norway lie primarily far from Norwegian waters, although environmental crime does represent also a local issue. Nevertheless, as a result of Norwegian interests in the global commons, piracy and terrorism can pose a serious threat to national interests. Thus, in building a navy for the future, Norway must build capability to meet the whole spectrum of naval roles.